How the estimate is built
The estimate answers one question: compared with the rules that were scheduled to apply, what does this year's policy do to your household budget? It adds up the changes that cost you money and subtracts the ones that save you money, then shows you both.
Two things are worth being blunt about. First, this is a model, and a model is only as good as the numbers you put in it — every one of them is listed below. Second, it deliberately cuts both ways: for most households the tax changes are a saving, and for most households the tariffs and premiums are a cost.
Tax parameters
Your federal bill is computed twice: once under the law as it stands for 2026, and once under what would have applied if the 2017 tax law had been allowed to expire as originally written. The difference is the federal tax line in your result.
| Filing status | Standard deduction — 2026 law | Standard deduction — 2017 law carried forward |
|---|---|---|
| Single | $16,100 | $8,470 plus $5,400 per person |
| Married, jointly | $32,200 | $16,935 plus $5,400 per person |
| Head of household | $24,150 | $12,470 plus $5,400 per person |
Single — bands
to $12,400 10% · to $50,400 12% · to $105,700 22% · to $201,775 24% · to $256,225 32% · to $640,600 35% · above there 37%
Carried forward: to $12,433 10% · to $50,600 15% · to $122,533 25% · to $255,533 28% · to $555,600 33% · to $557,867 35% · above there 39.6%
Married, jointly — bands
to $24,800 10% · to $100,800 12% · to $211,400 22% · to $403,550 24% · to $512,450 32% · to $768,700 35% · above there 37%
Carried forward: to $24,867 10% · to $101,200 15% · to $204,133 25% · to $311,133 28% · to $555,600 33% · to $627,600 35% · above there 39.6%
Head of household — bands
to $17,700 10% · to $67,450 12% · to $105,700 22% · to $201,775 24% · to $256,200 32% · to $640,600 35% · above there 37%
Carried forward: to $17,800 10% · to $67,733 15% · to $174,933 25% · to $283,333 28% · to $555,600 33% · to $592,733 35% · above there 39.6%
$2,200 per child
Was $1,000.
$40,400
Down to $10,000 above $505,000 of income.
$16,100
Plus $5,700 for each additional person. Used for the health insurance line.
Every number this tool uses
Drawn from published 2025 analyses and projections, rounded for readability. They are planning assumptions, not official figures, and not predictions.
Tariffs
Importers pay the duty, then pass part of it on. We model the share most analyses expect to land on household prices.
- Extra cost on everyday spending
- 2%
- Applied to estimated household retail spending. Calibrated so a median household lands near the $1,100–$1,500 a year range used in 2025 tariff analyses.
- Added cost — new imported car
- 6%
- Share of purchase price, reflecting 25% vehicle duties with partial pass-through to buyers.
- Added cost — new US-assembled car
- 2%
- Imported parts and components raise the price of cars built in the United States too.
- Added cost — used car
- 2%
- Used prices track new prices with a lag.
- Added cost — newly built home
- 2%
- Steel, aluminium, lumber and fixtures.
- Added cost — existing home
- 0%
- Material costs feed through into renovation and resale prices.
Health insurance
The enhanced ACA subsidies expired at the end of 2025, and Medicare's standard premium rises again in 2026.
- Marketplace premium increase (subsidised)
- 26%
- Projected 2026 increase for subsidised marketplace enrollees once the enhanced subsidies lapse.
- Full-price marketplace premium, per adult, per month
- $640
- Used only when income crosses 400% of the federal poverty line and the subsidy ends entirely.
- Full-price marketplace premium, per child, per month
- $340
- Same use as above.
- Medicare Part B premium increase, per person, per month
- $17
- Projected 2026 increase over 2025.
Student loans
Borrowers moved off the SAVE repayment plan onto plans with higher required payments.
- Average payment increase
- 15%
- This varies enormously between borrowers. If you already know your new payment, use it as the answer instead.
How much of your income we treat as retail spending
Tariffs land on goods you buy, not on the money you save. Lower-income households spend a larger share of income.
- Households under $20,000
- 1.05
- —
- $20,000 – $40,000
- 0.95
- —
- $40,000 – $75,000
- 0.85
- —
- $75,000 – $150,000
- 0.75
- —
- $150,000 – $250,000
- 0.65
- —
- Over $250,000
- 0.55
- —
- Minimum spending, single household
- $18,000
- Keeps very low reported incomes from producing unrealistically small numbers.
- Additional minimum spending per extra person
- $5,000
- —
Tax relief created in 2025
The 2025 tax law created several deductions that did not exist before, and raised others.
- Deduction for tips, per person
- $25,000
- Phases out above the income thresholds below.
- Deduction for overtime, single and head of household
- $12,500
- —
- Deduction for overtime, married filing jointly
- $25,000
- —
- Extra deduction for people 65 and over
- $6,000
- On top of the standard deduction, per person.
- Deduction for car loan interest
- $10,000
- New, US-assembled vehicles only.
- Electric vehicle credit that ended
- $7,500
- Ended 30 September 2025 for new vehicles.
- Used electric vehicle credit that ended
- $4,000
- Also capped at 30% of the purchase price.
Where the new deductions start to phase out
Above these income levels the new deductions shrink, then disappear.
- Tips, overtime and car interest — single
- $100,000
- Reduced by $100 for every $1,000 of income above the threshold.
- Tips, overtime and car interest — married
- $200,000
- Same rate of reduction.
- Senior deduction — single
- $75,000
- —
- Senior deduction — married
- $150,000
- —
What we leave out
- State and local income taxes, sales taxes and property tax rate changes.
- Whether a specific benefit you receive is cut, or a job you hold changes — eligibility and employment aren't priced here.
- What an employer does with a higher health insurance bill, whether that's smaller raises or a bigger payroll deduction.
- Investment returns, interest rates and the knock-on effect of policy on the wider economy.
- Anything that happens after this year. This is a one-year snapshot, not a projection.
This tool produces an estimate for illustration. It is not tax advice, financial advice, or a forecast, and it is not affiliated with any government body or political organisation. Where a figure would be guesswork — the cost of losing coverage, the value of a job — we say so instead of inventing one.